The Line Hasn’t Just Been Crossed, It’s Been Obliterated

‍Why this housing milestone matters more than people realize

This is a big deal and bigger than it looks at first glance.

Right now, 21% of homeowners have mortgage rates above 6%.
Only 20% have rates below 3%.

Let that sink in for a minute knowing that just a few years ago, that balance didn’t just look different, it told an entirely different story.

NOT LONG AGO, THIS MARKET LOOKED NOTHING LIKE TODAY

Between 2021 and 2022, which was the peak of the ultra-low-rate era, roughly half of all homeowners had mortgage rates below 3% and nearly 70% were below 4%.

Homeowners with rates above 6%? They barely existed. That environment shaped behavior as it froze inventory and rewarded people who were waiting. It made moving feel optional.

That world is gone.

Fast forward to today and the sub-3% group has been cut by more than half while the group above 6% has quadrupled.

Here’s the part that matters most: Life didn’t pause while rates rose. People were still getting married, families were still growing, careers shifted, parents downsized and some of life’s biggest moments were still happening.

What does that mean? Housing decisions don’t live in spreadsheets. They live in real lives.

THIS IS THE INFLECTION POINT

Markets don’t turn when media headlines scream. They turn when behavior changes.

We’re watching that shift happen now. The waiting game has a cost to it that’s recognized eventually. Because equity is still strong, inventory is slowly returning, not because of panic but because of acceptance.

And when people accept the current environment, that acceptance leads to movement. 

When enough people stop asking “What if rates go back?” and start asking “What makes sense for my life right now?” - the market moves.

It usually moves quietly at first, and then all at once.

WHY THIS MOMENT MATTERS

This is the line. It’s no longer theoretical and it’s been crossed. And for the first time in years, decisions are being driven less by hope and more by reality.

That’s how markets reset.
That’s how momentum builds.
And that’s how the next chapter begins.

‍